TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089193
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111315119115911
Leon Kolman
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Matej Svitac at 56.2%
104 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 16–11 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:22What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-11 in 27
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1658 vs Kolman 1658
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Kolman 80%
Kolman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 50% vs Kolman 70%
Kolman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +1 · Kolman +4
Kolman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.67 / Kolman 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089193
Svitac1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Kolman2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 75 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac5wins
AwayKolman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolman100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac6Kolman4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S2Svitac4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Svitac5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S4Svitac5Kolman3n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Svitac1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacKolmanS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.8+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 382 vs 359 / 67555%53.2%210 / 382 vs 359 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.67/Kolman 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:45M. Svitac—64111252L. Kolman—1111610113
LSep 1 · 13:15M. Svitac—7111351L. Kolman—11815113
WAug 15 · 11:45M. Svitac—141211113L. Kolman—12101381
WAug 13 · 11:45M. Svitac—11118113L. Kolman—781121
WAug 12 · 11:45M. Svitac—11811113L. Kolman—711591
LJul 29 · 12:43M. Svitac—7711101L. Kolman—11114123
LJul 29 · 11:45M. Svitac—7670L. Kolman—1111113
WJul 23 · 09:15M. Svitac—1112113L. Kolman—31060
LJul 21 · 09:45M. Svitac—117121072L. Kolman—8111012113
WJul 20 · 09:15M. Svitac—119811123L. Kolman—911118102
M. Svitac10
WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
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