TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094545
Played Sep 8Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116114––––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Leon Kolman at 70.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 2–5 Leon Kolman Zdenek Vasatko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1685 vs Kolman 1694
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 60% vs Kolman 80%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 70% vs Kolman 90%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko +2 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 2.63 / Kolman 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Kolman)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094545
Vasatko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 29 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Kolman1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 112 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVasatko2wins
AwayKolman5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKolman leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko2Kolman5n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
S2Vasatko3Kolman4n = 7Kolman took 4 of 7
S3Vasatko1Kolman6n = 7Kolman took 6 of 7
S4Vasatko2Kolman2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricVasatkoKolmanV − KBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.337.0−3.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 288 vs 364 / 68149.7%53.5%143 / 288 vs 364 / 681Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.440.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanVasatko 2.63/Kolman 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 7 · 12:58Z. Vasatko—913691L. Kolman—111111113
LSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko—4980L. Kolman—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:38Z. Vasatko—8340L. Kolman—1111113
LAug 31 · 14:30Z. Vasatko—11119772L. Kolman—921111113
LAug 27 · 09:15Z. Vasatko—75100L. Kolman—1111123
WApr 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko—11119113L. Kolman—651171
WMar 16 · 13:00Z. Vasatko—8101111113L. Kolman—11127572
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691LSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113WSep 7 · 09:58M. Bruk3.00118119102Z. Vasatko1.36911511123WSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162LSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101WSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990
L. Kolman10
LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791WSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka2.50491111102L. Kolman1.50111175123WSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691WSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113WSep 7 · 10:58M. Bruk1.834470L. Kolman1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960
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