TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13109792
Played Sep 10Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116711116––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6
70 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 12–18 Matej Svitac Leon Kolman has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Svitac beat Kolman 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 2.20 / Svitac 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13109792
Kolman2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 77 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Svitac1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 68 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman5wins
AwaySvitac5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman83.3%5 of 6
AwaySvitac100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman6Svitac4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Kolman5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman4Svitac6n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S4Kolman2Svitac6n = 8Svitac took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanSvitacK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.338.6−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 690 vs 216 / 39353%55%366 / 690 vs 216 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacKolman 2.20/Svitac 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 09:15L. Kolman—9540M. Svitac—1111113
LSep 8 · 10:45L. Kolman—119791M. Svitac—81111113
WSep 7 · 09:30L. Kolman—111595113M. Svitac—913111192
WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman—1111610113M. Svitac—64111252
WSep 1 · 13:15L. Kolman—11815113M. Svitac—7111351
LAug 15 · 11:45L. Kolman—12101381M. Svitac—141211113
LAug 13 · 11:45L. Kolman—781121M. Svitac—11118113
LAug 12 · 11:45L. Kolman—711591M. Svitac—11811113
WJul 29 · 12:43L. Kolman—11114123M. Svitac—7711101
WJul 29 · 11:45L. Kolman—1111113M. Svitac—7670
L. Kolman10
WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113LSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351LSep 9 · 15:00T. Hucko1.73158116143L. Kolman2.001311711122LSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640LSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791
M. Svitac10
WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791LSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 11:30M. Svitac1.679121191M. Bruk2.1011148113LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113
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