TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105897
Played Sep 10Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115114––––
Leon Kolman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Matej Svitac at 54.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 18–12 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Svitac
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1671 vs Kolman 1613
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Kolman 0%
Svitac
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 40% vs Kolman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +3 · Kolman -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.73 / Kolman 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105897
Svitac1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 68 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Kolman2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 77 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac5wins
AwayKolman5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac100%4 of 4
AwayKolman83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Svitac5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Svitac6Kolman4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S4Svitac6Kolman2n = 8Svitac took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacKolmanS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.3+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 391 vs 365 / 68854.7%53.1%214 / 391 vs 365 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.73/Kolman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac—1111113L. Kolman—9540
WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac—81111113L. Kolman—119791
LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac—913111192L. Kolman—111595113
LSep 6 · 17:45M. Svitac—64111252L. Kolman—1111610113
LSep 1 · 13:15M. Svitac—7111351L. Kolman—11815113
WAug 15 · 11:45M. Svitac—141211113L. Kolman—12101381
WAug 13 · 11:45M. Svitac—11118113L. Kolman—781121
WAug 12 · 11:45M. Svitac—11811113L. Kolman—711591
LJul 29 · 12:43M. Svitac—7711101L. Kolman—11114123
LJul 29 · 11:45M. Svitac—7670L. Kolman—1111113
M. Svitac10
WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791LSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 11:30M. Svitac1.679121191M. Bruk2.1011148113LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113
L. Kolman10
WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113LSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351LSep 9 · 15:00T. Hucko1.73158116143L. Kolman2.001311711122LSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640LSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791WSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113
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