TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121915
Played Sep 13Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210115711411117
Pavel Hala
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timePavel Hala to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Pavel Hala below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Hala at 61.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 25–29 Pavel Hala Roman Merkl has won 25 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-29 in 54
Hala
Wrong
gap of 4 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1565 vs Hala 1617
Hala
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 20% vs Hala 40%
Hala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Hala 60%
Hala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Hala -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Hala) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.25 / Hala 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Hala)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13121915
Merkl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 83 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back18% 8 of 44
Hala1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 66 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it65% 56 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayHala6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHala leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl60%3 of 5
AwayHala80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S2Merkl5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S3Merkl5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S4Merkl3Hala4n = 7Hala took 4 of 7
S5Merkl1Hala3n = 4Hala took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklHalaM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.2−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklHalaBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 558 vs 311 / 61549.1%50.6%274 / 558 vs 311 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HalaMerkl 2.25/Hala 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Hala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl45121174113P. Hala44105111172
LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl37231111102P. Hala48111177123
WAug 21 · 19:15R. Merkl331111113P. Hala175840
LAug 16 · 11:00R. Merkl146350P. Hala331111113
LJun 10 · 15:00R. Merkl4611911692P. Hala49911711113
LJun 3 · 13:15R. Merkl3941111762P. Hala44115611113
WMay 25 · 20:44R. Merkl4211115153P. Hala386811131
LMay 25 · 19:45R. Merkl31113981P. Hala4181111113
WMay 4 · 17:03R. Merkl3961111113P. Hala27116551
LMay 4 · 15:00R. Merkl35159110P. Hala411711133
R. Merkl10
LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123
P. Hala10
WSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113LSep 11 · 17:03P. Hala1.6713760O. Horak2.101511113LSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113WSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133LSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351WSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 14:00T. Hucko1.576490P. Hala2.251111113WSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123
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