TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111009
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Hala
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511511118511
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Hala above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 57.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Hala 8–11 Vladimir Lopata Pavel Hala has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:53What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lopata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Lopata
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hala 1662 vs Lopata 1554
Hala
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hala 80% vs Lopata 40%
Hala
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hala 70% vs Lopata 30%
Hala
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hala +2 · Lopata -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Lopata) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHala 2.25 / Lopata 1.57
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Lopata)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111009
Hala2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 48 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Lopata1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 27 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHala4wins
AwayLopata6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLopata leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHala75%3 of 4
AwayLopata83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hala4Lopata6n = 10Lopata took 6 of 10
S2Hala6Lopata4n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S3Hala5Lopata5n = 10split evenly
S4Hala2Lopata5n = 7Lopata took 5 of 7
S5Hala2Lopata3n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHalaLopataH − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.3−0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHalaLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 611 vs 136 / 26550.7%51.3%310 / 611 vs 136 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataHala 2.25/Lopata 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 16:59P. Hala—12811792V. Lopata—1011811113
WAug 20 · 16:00P. Hala—11118113V. Lopata—561191
WAug 14 · 16:44P. Hala—791111113V. Lopata—11117942
LAug 14 · 14:15P. Hala—91111552V. Lopata—116511113
LJul 13 · 14:15P. Hala—12650V. Lopata—1411113
LApr 26 · 11:30P. Hala—1011881V. Lopata—12711113
LJan 3 · 19:00P. Hala—81211892V. Lopata—1110911113
WDec 29 · 11:45P. Hala—1111113V. Lopata—6810
WDec 22 · 13:43P. Hala—111298113V. Lopata—610111182
LDec 22 · 12:45P. Hala—65110V. Lopata—1111133
P. Hala10
WSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133LSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351WSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 14:00T. Hucko1.576490P. Hala2.251111113WSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113LSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123WSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123LSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141
V. Lopata10
WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101
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