TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111148
Played Sep 11Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114112––––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 46 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 8–3 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:23What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Horak
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1522 vs Lopata 1570
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 40% vs Lopata 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 50% vs Lopata 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -2 · Lopata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.80 / Lopata 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111148
Horak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 18 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it64% 9 of 14
Lopata1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak7wins
AwayLopata3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak100%6 of 6
AwayLopata75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak6Lopata4n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S2Horak5Lopata5n = 10split evenly
S3Horak5Lopata5n = 10split evenly
S4Horak4Lopata2n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakLopataH − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.433.4+3.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 189 vs 136 / 26448.7%51.5%92 / 189 vs 136 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.80/Lopata 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 24 · 16:29O. Horak—117811123V. Lopata—811116102
WApr 24 · 14:30O. Horak—11811113V. Lopata—511281
LJan 2 · 13:28O. Horak—6550V. Lopata—1111113
WJan 2 · 11:15O. Horak—111110123V. Lopata—7812101
LNov 20 · 15:00O. Horak—6690V. Lopata—1111113
WMay 7 · 16:48O. Horak—1211113V. Lopata—10480
WMay 7 · 14:30O. Horak—1111113V. Lopata—8960
LApr 29 · 16:00O. Horak—1081141V. Lopata—12116113
WFeb 26 · 16:00O. Horak—11118113V. Lopata—951191
WJan 24 · 16:00O. Horak—1011119113V. Lopata—12971112
O. Horak10
WSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172
V. Lopata10
LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141
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