TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111324
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10124111012––––
Ondrej Horak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 59.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 2–6 Ondrej Horak Adam Pavlik has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Horak
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1580 vs Horak 1537
Pavlik
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 60% vs Horak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 30% vs Horak 60%
Horak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -1 · Horak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.00 / Horak 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Horak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111324
Pavlik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 42 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Horak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 18 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it64% 9 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePavlik2wins
AwayHorak6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderHorak leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHorak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik2Horak6n = 8Horak took 6 of 8
S2Pavlik3Horak5n = 8Horak took 5 of 8
S3Pavlik2Horak6n = 8Horak took 6 of 8
S4Pavlik2Horak4n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricPavlikHorakP − HBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match35.239.9−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 326 vs 93 / 19051.5%49%168 / 326 vs 93 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakPavlik 2.00/Horak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 8 · 16:00A. Pavlik—8111011113O. Horak—11912362
LMay 7 · 14:30A. Pavlik—11115111O. Horak—61311133
LJan 22 · 15:00A. Pavlik—1161181O. Horak—13119113
LAug 12 · 13:45A. Pavlik—9880O. Horak—1111113
LJul 1 · 15:15A. Pavlik—71140O. Horak—1113113
LJun 19 · 14:30A. Pavlik—951141O. Horak—11117113
LFeb 26 · 18:05A. Pavlik—8125101O. Horak—111011123
WFeb 26 · 15:00A. Pavlik—11168113O. Horak—5141191
A. Pavlik10
LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133LSep 7 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.80118691D. Brichacek1.9171111113LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103
O. Horak10
WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172
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