TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13115961
Played Sep 11Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117511119911119
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9
94 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 3–2 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pavlik beat Lopata 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 1.80 / Pavlik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavlik)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13115961
Lopata1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 27 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Pavlik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 42 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLopata3wins
AwayPavlik2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderLopata leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata75%3 of 4
AwayPavlikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata4Pavlik1n = 5Lopata took 4 of 5
S2Lopata3Pavlik2n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S3Lopata2Pavlik3n = 5Pavlik took 3 of 5
S4Lopata2Pavlik1n = 3Lopata took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricLopataPavlikL − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match35.635.0+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 266 vs 168 / 32751.5%51.4%137 / 266 vs 168 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikLopata 1.80/Pavlik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 11 · 13:30V. Lopata—10750A. Pavlik—1211113
WDec 23 · 17:50V. Lopata—1111113A. Pavlik—5890
WDec 23 · 15:15V. Lopata—11118153A. Pavlik—7811131
LOct 3 · 13:45V. Lopata—11911712A. Pavlik—711711113
WFeb 26 · 17:00V. Lopata—11116113A. Pavlik—781171
V. Lopata10
WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101
A. Pavlik10
LSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133LSep 7 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.80118691D. Brichacek1.9171111113LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113
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