TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122522
Played Sep 13Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114711119811118
Leon Kolman
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Leon Kolman at 61.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 11–16 Leon Kolman Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1562 vs Kolman 1602
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Kolman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl +1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.20 / Kolman 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kolman)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13122522
Merkl2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 83 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back18% 8 of 44
Kolman1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 103 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it70% 81 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl3wins
AwayKolman7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolman71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Merkl5Kolman4n = 9Merkl took 5 of 9
S3Merkl4Kolman5n = 9Kolman took 5 of 9
S4Merkl2Kolman5n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
S5Merkl3Kolman3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklKolmanM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.7−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 559 vs 356 / 67749%52.6%274 / 559 vs 356 / 677Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanMerkl 2.20/Kolman 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl48117118113L. Kolman4341191182
LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl33614671L. Kolman45111211113
LAug 22 · 08:00R. Merkl521111101192L. Kolman53138129113
WAug 21 · 18:15R. Merkl50912117113L. Kolman43111041172
LJul 27 · 14:15R. Merkl209380L. Kolman331111113
LJul 6 · 17:15R. Merkl4111114782L. Kolman47861111113
LJun 27 · 20:00R. Merkl481041211112L. Kolman551211109133
LJun 19 · 07:45R. Merkl12121L. Kolman10103
WJun 15 · 15:30R. Merkl441011111113L. Kolman4312851172
LMay 10 · 08:54R. Merkl2788110L. Kolman351111133
R. Merkl10
LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101
L. Kolman10
LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113LSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351LSep 9 · 15:00T. Hucko1.73158116143L. Kolman2.001311711122LSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.