Jan Simecek Jnr vs Petr Orlowski 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13106249

Played Sep 9Finished

Jan Simecek Jnr

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 4

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

118115811911711

Petr Orlowski

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Orlowski below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 7-11

Point 92 set 5, 7-11

92 points played in total.

H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 26–20 Petr Orlowski Petr Orlowski has won 20 of their 46 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Jnr beat Orlowski 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Orlowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Orlowski 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Jnr)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13106249

Jnr1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Orlowski1.83

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJnr5wins

AwayOrlowski5wins

6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJnr50%2 of 4

AwayOrlowski50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jnr4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S2Jnr3Orlowski7n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10

S3Jnr7Orlowski3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10

S4Jnr4Orlowski5n = 9Orlowski took 5 of 9

S5Jnr4Orlowski2n = 6Jnr took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricJnrOrlowskiJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.546.6−1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJnrOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 431 vs 185 / 34752.4%53.3%226 / 431 vs 185 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Jnr

Jnr 1.83/Orlowski 1.83

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Jnr · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Orlowski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 9 · 17:45J. Jnr—111295133P. Orlowski—9101111112

LAug 25 · 20:20J. Jnr—671191P. Orlowski—11118113

WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr—7101111133P. Orlowski—111259112

WAug 20 · 20:23J. Jnr—9111111113P. Orlowski—11138792

LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr—91111582P. Orlowski—117911113

LAug 17 · 19:15J. Jnr—118791P. Orlowski—81111113

WAug 13 · 20:18J. Jnr—1991111113P. Orlowski—21116992

LAug 13 · 19:15J. Jnr—49111182P. Orlowski—111188113

WJul 20 · 17:45J. Jnr—1111173P. Orlowski—86150

LJul 16 · 20:13J. Jnr—225991P. Orlowski—201111113

J. Jnr10

WSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680 WSep 9 · 18:15J. Gruber1.40591171J. Jnr2.7511117113 WSep 9 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.919101111112J. Jnr1.80111295133 WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113 LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123 LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113 WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391 LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191 WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112 WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172

P. Orlowski10

WSep 9 · 19:15J. Gruber2.00311911122P. Orlowski1.73117118143 WSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691 LSep 9 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.919101111112J. Jnr1.80111295133 LSep 7 · 20:59D. Brichacek2.101111123P. Orlowski1.6775100 LSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133 WSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171 WSep 7 · 17:30P. Orlowski1.83111110113D. Brichacek1.83571261 WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111 WAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191 LAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112

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