TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101074
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116118––––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 58.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 2–0 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1638 vs Kalensky 1554
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Kalensky 20%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Kalensky 30%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +3 · Kalensky -1
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.61 / Kalensky 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Jnr)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13101074
Jnr1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Kalensky2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 48 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJnr2wins
AwayKalensky0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderJnr leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJnrKalenskyJ − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match48.043.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 430 vs 287 / 52552.3%54.7%225 / 430 vs 287 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.61/Kalensky 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 20 · 17:15J. Jnr—117511113S. Kalensky—81111682
WJun 30 · 18:30J. Jnr—1111108113S. Kalensky—28121192
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 18:15J. Gruber1.40591171J. Jnr2.7511117113WSep 9 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.919101111112J. Jnr1.80111295133WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181
S. Kalensky10
WSep 9 · 20:14S. Kalensky2.50711611113J. Gruber1.5011611942LSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691WSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113LSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113
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