TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106154
Played Sep 9Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116611119114
Josef Gruber
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Josef Gruber below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 87 set 5, 11-4
87 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 1–2 Josef Gruber Stepan Kalensky has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kalensky beat Gruber 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 2.50 / Gruber 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Gruber)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13106154
Kalensky2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 48 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Gruber1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 50 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKalensky1wins
AwayGruber2wins
Gruber leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenskyn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayGruber66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky0Gruber3n = 3Gruber took 3 of 3
S2Kalensky1Gruber2n = 3Gruber took 2 of 3
S3Kalensky2Gruber1n = 3Kalensky took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKalenskyGruberK − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match33.736.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyGruberBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 525 vs 118 / 20954.5%56.5%286 / 525 vs 118 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberKalensky 2.50/Gruber 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 9 · 17:15S. Kalensky—61111113J. Gruber—117741
LJun 30 · 21:03S. Kalensky—411100J. Gruber—1113123
LJun 30 · 20:00S. Kalensky—7911101J. Gruber—11119123
S. Kalensky10
LSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680LSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691WSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113LSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113
J. Gruber10
LSep 9 · 19:15J. Gruber2.00311911122P. Orlowski1.73117118143LSep 9 · 18:15J. Gruber1.40591171J. Jnr2.7511117113LSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361
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