TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13124107
Played Sep 13Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511114119119––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9
71 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 16–11 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Merkl beat Kolman 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.83 / Merkl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolman)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13124107
Kolman1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Merkl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman71.4%5 of 7
AwayMerkl33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman7Merkl3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Kolman4Merkl5n = 9Merkl took 5 of 9
S3Kolman5Merkl4n = 9Kolman took 5 of 9
S4Kolman5Merkl2n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
S5Kolman3Merkl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanMerklK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.737.5+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 678 vs 274 / 55952.5%49%356 / 678 vs 274 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.83/Merkl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:00L. Kolman4341191182R. Merkl48117118113
WAug 30 · 08:00L. Kolman45111211113R. Merkl33614671
WAug 22 · 08:00L. Kolman53138129113R. Merkl521111101192
LAug 21 · 18:15L. Kolman43111041172R. Merkl50912117113
WJul 27 · 14:15L. Kolman331111113R. Merkl209380
WJul 6 · 17:15L. Kolman47861111113R. Merkl4111114782
WJun 27 · 20:00L. Kolman551211109133R. Merkl481041211112
WJun 19 · 07:45L. Kolman10103R. Merkl12121
LJun 15 · 15:30L. Kolman4312851172R. Merkl441011111113
WMay 10 · 08:54L. Kolman351111133R. Merkl2788110
L. Kolman10
LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113LSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351LSep 9 · 15:00T. Hucko1.73158116143L. Kolman2.001311711122
R. Merkl10
LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123
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