TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122587
Played Sep 13Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11614121210––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:02 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 65 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 60.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 1–1 Ruslan Lazebnyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1730 vs Lazebnyi 1601
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Lazebnyi 60%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -2 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.61 / Lazebnyi 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13122587
Kozachuk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 104 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it81% 79 of 97
Lazebnyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKozachuk1wins
AwayLazebnyi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKozachukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.040.5−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1100 vs 60 / 11949.6%50.4%546 / 1100 vs 60 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.61/Lazebnyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk45111111123R. Lazebnyi378136101
LSep 4 · 24:00I. Kozachuk357611111R. Lazebnyi4411119133
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113WSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790WSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi1.8091111113R. Haiseniuk1.91117751WSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113LSep 12 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.91101111123R. Lazebnyi1.801272101WSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113WSep 11 · 14:35R. Lazebnyi2.001111113R. Haiseniuk1.739670LSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133
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