TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111024
Played Sep 11Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 57.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 10–7 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1659 vs Lazebnyi 1582
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +3 · Lazebnyi +1
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Lazebnyi 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111024
Kovalchuk1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 115 of 160
Lazebnyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 19 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%6 of 8
AwayLazebnyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk8Lazebnyi2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk3Lazebnyi7n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Lazebnyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalchuk2Lazebnyi1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.436.7+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 725 vs 56 / 11351.3%49.6%372 / 725 vs 56 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Lazebnyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 11:05N. Kovalchuk—111159133R. Lazebnyi—431111112
LSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk—1110751R. Lazebnyi—91211113
LAug 31 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—8290R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 29 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—11119113R. Lazebnyi—671191
WAug 28 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk—11613123R. Lazebnyi—41111101
WAug 25 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—1111123R. Lazebnyi—57100
WAug 25 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—11126113R. Lazebnyi—3101171
WAug 22 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk—11111110113R. Lazebnyi—86131282
LAug 21 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—8101171R. Lazebnyi—11125113
LAug 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—11981162R. Lazebnyi—411116113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113WSep 11 · 14:35R. Lazebnyi2.001111113R. Haiseniuk1.739670LSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133LSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080WSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.