TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111191
Played Sep 11Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911711––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 11–11 Ivan Romaniak Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Romaniak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1649 vs Romaniak 1682
Romaniak
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Romaniak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Romaniak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Romaniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Romaniak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Romaniak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111191
Kovalchuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Romaniak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRomaniak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk57.1%4 of 7
AwayRomaniak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Romaniak3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk3Romaniak7n = 10Romaniak took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk1Romaniak6n = 7Romaniak took 6 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Romaniak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRomaniakK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.640.5+1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 721 vs 236 / 52151.2%45.3%369 / 721 vs 236 / 521Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakKovalchuk 1.83/Romaniak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk—1311119102I. Romaniak—155311123
WSep 8 · 04:25N. Kovalchuk—1171411113I. Romaniak—811121382
LAug 21 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk—1181211102I. Romaniak—9111013123
LJul 2 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—8860I. Romaniak—1111113
WJun 14 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—1511119113I. Romaniak—135131172
LJun 3 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—14690I. Romaniak—1611113
LJun 2 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—1187141I. Romaniak—81111163
WJun 1 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk—1111113I. Romaniak—6860
LMay 18 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—1181061I. Romaniak—21112113
WMay 16 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—11711113I. Romaniak—411781
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870
I. Romaniak10
LSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172WSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113LSep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61116961R. Haiseniuk2.2081111113WSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492LSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100WSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181WSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113
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