TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106227
Played Sep 11Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1129111214116114
Ruslan Haiseniuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Haiseniuk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 15–16 Ruslan Haiseniuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Haiseniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1641 vs Haiseniuk 1550
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Haiseniuk 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Haiseniuk 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Haiseniuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Haiseniuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Haiseniuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13106227
Kovalchuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Haiseniuk1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayHaiseniuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
AwayHaiseniuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Haiseniuk4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk1Haiseniuk9n = 10Haiseniuk took 9 of 10
S3Kovalchuk7Haiseniuk3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Haiseniuk5n = 7Haiseniuk took 5 of 7
S5Kovalchuk3Haiseniuk1n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukHaiseniukK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.735.9−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukHaiseniukBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 720 vs 411 / 73951.1%55.6%368 / 720 vs 411 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.83/Haiseniuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk—1110115113R. Haiseniuk—81271152
LSep 4 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—11911842R. Haiseniuk—611811113
WAug 29 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—117119113R. Haiseniuk—41141192
LAug 28 · 12:35N. Kovalchuk—114951R. Haiseniuk—51111113
WAug 22 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—11511113R. Haiseniuk—711941
LAug 15 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—10350R. Haiseniuk—1211113
LAug 14 · 12:35N. Kovalchuk—7380R. Haiseniuk—1111113
LJun 29 · 24:00N. Kovalchuk—571191R. Haiseniuk—11119113
WJun 10 · 24:45N. Kovalchuk—1111113R. Haiseniuk—3970
WMay 1 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—971111113R. Haiseniuk—11114432
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113
R. Haiseniuk10
WSep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61116961R. Haiseniuk2.2081111113LSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790LSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560LSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071LSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113WSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771LSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
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