TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106230
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210113118––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 24–23 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-23 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1735 vs Kovalchuk 1640
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 20% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.91 / Kovalchuk 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13106230
Kozachuk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 100 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 78
Kovalchuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 165 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk75%3 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk5Kovalchuk3n = 8Kozachuk took 5 of 8
S5Kozachuk2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukKovalchukKozachuk − KovalchukBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.741.1−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 1096 vs 367 / 71749.6%51.2%544 / 1096 vs 367 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.91/Kovalchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk—49111172N. Kovalchuk—111183113
WJul 3 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—11117113N. Kovalchuk—571151
LJun 29 · 02:30I. Kozachuk—6260N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 15 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—111110113N. Kovalchuk—681261
LJun 5 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—117751N. Kovalchuk—81111113
LJun 3 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—7960N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—611511113N. Kovalchuk—11911992
LMay 19 · 24:30I. Kozachuk—691221N. Kovalchuk—111110113
LMay 14 · 20:00I. Kozachuk—810151372N. Kovalchuk—11121311113
WMay 10 · 22:45I. Kozachuk—1161111113N. Kovalchuk—91191382
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 11 · 24:30N. Kovalchuk3.40S. Rak1.30—Sep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.83R. Haiseniuk1.83—Sep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.83I. Romaniak1.83—Sep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57M. Smyrnov2.25—Sep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40Y. Kravets2.75—Sep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.83R. Haiseniuk1.83—Sep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.67R. Lazebnyi2.10—
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