TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105817
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
14121191210––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:37 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 68 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.1%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 40–27 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 27 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-27 in 67
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1722 vs Romaniak 1696
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 20% vs Romaniak 60%
Romaniak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Romaniak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -4 · Romaniak +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.73 / Romaniak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105817
Kozachuk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 131 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 123
Romaniak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 310
Down 0–1, comes back27% 50 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk6wins
AwayRomaniak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%6 of 6
AwayRomaniak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk6Romaniak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk7Romaniak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kozachuk3Romaniak3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRomaniakK − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.532.2+4.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1095 vs 234 / 51649.6%45.4%543 / 1095 vs 234 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.73/Romaniak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 10:25I. Kozachuk—871181I. Romaniak—11116113
WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk—11115113I. Romaniak—571181
LSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk—91181232I. Romaniak—1181110113
LAug 31 · 15:55I. Kozachuk—991181I. Romaniak—11119113
LAug 27 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—7470I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 25 · 10:25I. Kozachuk—111198113I. Romaniak—87111182
WAug 24 · 12:25I. Kozachuk—111110113I. Romaniak—281231
WAug 18 · 05:05I. Kozachuk—1111113I. Romaniak—7540
WAug 17 · 18:05I. Kozachuk—1112133I. Romaniak—310110
WAug 17 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—1111113I. Romaniak—3580
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181
I. Romaniak10
WSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181WSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
I. Romaniak
Sep 10 · 21:30I. Romaniak2.63S. Rak1.44—Sep 10 · 23:30I. Romaniak1.83N. Kovalchuk1.83—Sep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61R. Haiseniuk2.20—Sep 11 · 03:00I. Romaniak2.00D. Shcherbak1.73—Sep 11 · 12:05I. Romaniak1.83N. Kovalchuk1.83—Sep 11 · 14:05I. Romaniak1.53Y. Kravets2.38—Sep 11 · 16:05I. Romaniak2.00R. Lazebnyi1.73—Sep 11 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Sep 11 · 18:35I. Romaniak1.73R. Haiseniuk2.00—
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