TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105783
Played Sep 10Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119113411811
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:33 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 12–20 Denys Shcherbak Nazar Kovalchuk has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-20 in 32
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1647 vs Shcherbak 1757
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Shcherbak 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +3 · Shcherbak +1
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.00 / Shcherbak 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Shcherbak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13105783
Kovalchuk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 62 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Shcherbak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 154 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it93% 90 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it77% 122 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayShcherbak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayShcherbak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Shcherbak7n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Shcherbak4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalchuk0Shcherbak4n = 4Shcherbak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShcherbakK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.3−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 716 vs 324 / 62551.3%51.8%367 / 716 vs 324 / 625Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakKovalchuk 2.00/Shcherbak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—911101182D. Shcherbak—117127113
LAug 28 · 19:05N. Kovalchuk—8790D. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 22 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—271191D. Shcherbak—11115113
WAug 21 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—8750
LAug 8 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—88111122D. Shcherbak—111166113
LJul 3 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk—81141192D. Shcherbak—115117113
WJun 29 · 01:30N. Kovalchuk—11911113D. Shcherbak—711661
LJun 15 · 24:30N. Kovalchuk—116661D. Shcherbak—51111113
LJun 3 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk—81311592D. Shcherbak—1111111113
LJun 2 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk—391171D. Shcherbak—11118113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161WSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113LSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490
Upcoming Matches
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 10 · 22:30N. Kovalchuk1.80I. Kozachuk1.91—Sep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.83I. Romaniak1.83—Sep 11 · 24:30N. Kovalchuk3.40S. Rak1.30—Sep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.83R. Haiseniuk1.83—Sep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.83I. Romaniak1.83—Sep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Sep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.36Y. Kravets3.00—Sep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.83R. Haiseniuk1.83—Sep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.67R. Lazebnyi2.10—
D. Shcherbak
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