TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093988
Played Sep 8Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311811––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 51 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 69.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 24–15 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-15 in 39
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1939 vs Kovalchuk 1623
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Kovalchuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 80% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.33 / Kovalchuk 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13093988
Pesternikov1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 232 of 341
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it86% 186 of 217
Kovalchuk3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwayKovalchuk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%7 of 7
AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov5Kovalchuk3n = 8Pesternikov took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKovalchukP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.735.9+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1108 vs 366 / 71553.6%51.2%594 / 1108 vs 366 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.33/Kovalchuk 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.1%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 13 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—12914143N. Kovalchuk—101112121
WJun 4 · 20:00D. Pesternikov—127117113N. Kovalchuk—101181182
WJun 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov—1111133N. Kovalchuk—77110
WJun 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov—1111163N. Kovalchuk—68140
LMay 17 · 21:15D. Pesternikov—681181N. Kovalchuk—11114113
WMay 16 · 11:35D. Pesternikov—11311113N. Kovalchuk—511431
WMay 12 · 16:35D. Pesternikov—11113113N. Kovalchuk—621191
WMay 10 · 21:15D. Pesternikov—11911113N. Kovalchuk—711831
WApr 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov—812212113N. Kovalchuk—1110111092
LApr 23 · 23:30D. Pesternikov—1013751N. Kovalchuk—121111113
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133
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