TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106511
Played Sep 10Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111161210117––
Ruslan Haiseniuk
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ruslan Haiseniuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Rak at 73.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 13–5 Ruslan Haiseniuk Ruslan Haiseniuk has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Rak
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1797 vs Haiseniuk 1551
Rak
Correct
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Haiseniuk 20%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Haiseniuk 40%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +2 · Haiseniuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.30 / Haiseniuk 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13106511
Rak1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 271 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it92% 134 of 145
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 234
Haiseniuk3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 43 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayHaiseniuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak85.7%6 of 7
AwayHaiseniuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak7Haiseniuk3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S2Rak7Haiseniuk3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S3Rak5Haiseniuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Rak7Haiseniuk1n = 8Rak took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakHaiseniukR − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.634.1+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakHaiseniukBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 910 vs 411 / 73955%55.6%500 / 910 vs 411 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.30/Haiseniuk 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 23:00S. Rak—811121172R. Haiseniuk—114145113
WAug 13 · 21:30S. Rak—1111113R. Haiseniuk—8830
WAug 7 · 15:05S. Rak—11118123R. Haiseniuk—9511101
WAug 6 · 23:00S. Rak—11115113R. Haiseniuk—661191
LAug 1 · 11:35S. Rak—7115101R. Haiseniuk—11611123
WJul 28 · 06:35S. Rak—111211133R. Haiseniuk—5149111
WJul 17 · 12:35S. Rak—11411113R. Haiseniuk—711381
LJul 16 · 21:30S. Rak—118811102R. Haiseniuk—511116123
WJul 11 · 05:35S. Rak—101111113R. Haiseniuk—128261
WJul 9 · 21:30S. Rak—1114113R. Haiseniuk—81290
S. Rak10
WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060WSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182
R. Haiseniuk10
LSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113WSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771LSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113WSep 4 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.8311911842R. Haiseniuk1.83611811113WSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113LSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
Upcoming Matches
S. Rak
R. Haiseniuk
Sep 10 · 22:00R. Haiseniuk3.00D. Shcherbak1.36—Sep 11 · 24:00R. Haiseniuk3.00I. Kozachuk1.36—Sep 11 · 01:30R. Haiseniuk2.20I. Romaniak1.61—Sep 11 · 02:30R. Haiseniuk1.83N. Kovalchuk1.83—Sep 11 · 14:35R. Haiseniuk1.80R. Lazebnyi1.91—Sep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.73M. Smyrnov2.00—Sep 11 · 16:35R. Haiseniuk1.83N. Kovalchuk1.83—Sep 11 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk2.00I. Romaniak1.73—
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