TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110965
Played Sep 11Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116116711116
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 62.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 43–19 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 19 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-19 in 62
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 24 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1627 vs Smyrnov 1599
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Smyrnov 80%
Smyrnov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Smyrnov 70%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Smyrnov +4
Smyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.57 / Smyrnov 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13110965
Kovalchuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 115 of 160
Smyrnov2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwaySmyrnov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%3 of 4
AwaySmyrnov33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk6Smyrnov4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk5Smyrnov3n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5Kovalchuk4Smyrnov1n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukSmyrnovK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.640.4+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 722 vs 400 / 81151.1%49.3%369 / 722 vs 400 / 811Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.57/Smyrnov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—7890M. Smyrnov—1111113
WAug 24 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—991111143M. Smyrnov—111168122
WAug 18 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—91111113M. Smyrnov—119981
WAug 9 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—111210113M. Smyrnov—9101241
WAug 7 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk—711711113M. Smyrnov—11911282
LAug 5 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk—11811972M. Smyrnov—911811113
WJul 26 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—9111411113M. Smyrnov—11716892
LJul 25 · 19:05N. Kovalchuk—9101191M. Smyrnov—11127113
WJul 25 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk—111198123M. Smyrnov—961111102
WJul 7 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—1111113M. Smyrnov—8670
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113
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