TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101050
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210311119117
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 62.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 25–58 Mykyta Smyrnov Valerii Vlasenko has won 25 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-58 in 83
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 33 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1508 vs Smyrnov 1569
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 20% vs Smyrnov 60%
Smyrnov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 40% vs Smyrnov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Smyrnov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.38 / Smyrnov 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Smyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13101050
Vlasenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Smyrnov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 129 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it89% 57 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it75% 94 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko2wins
AwaySmyrnov8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySmyrnov77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko1Smyrnov9n = 10Smyrnov took 9 of 10
S2Vlasenko2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S3Vlasenko4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Smyrnov2n = 7Vlasenko took 5 of 7
S5Vlasenko2Smyrnov3n = 5Smyrnov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovV − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.342.4−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 937 vs 396 / 80644%49.1%412 / 937 vs 396 / 806Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovVlasenko 2.38/Smyrnov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 23:00V. Vlasenko—914712113M. Smyrnov—1112111092
LSep 2 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—731171M. Smyrnov—11118113
LAug 30 · 05:05V. Vlasenko—5680M. Smyrnov—1111113
LAug 28 · 21:30V. Vlasenko—571191M. Smyrnov—11112113
LAug 25 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—5950M. Smyrnov—1111113
LAug 25 · 24:15V. Vlasenko—77121162M. Smyrnov—1111108113
LAug 21 · 20:00V. Vlasenko—97100M. Smyrnov—1111123
LAug 17 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—1110101352M. Smyrnov—7121211113
WAug 13 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—811811113M. Smyrnov—11911592
LAug 12 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—77111192M. Smyrnov—111158113
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.101161171O. Hura1.6713119113WSep 9 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.917911151V. Vlasenko1.8011112173LSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172
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