TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095062
Played Sep 8Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311311711––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 46 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.9%
46 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 46–56 Mykyta Smyrnov Anton Shypilov has won 46 of their 102 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-56 in 102
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 10 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1481 vs Smyrnov 1565
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Smyrnov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 30% vs Smyrnov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +1 · Smyrnov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.00 / Smyrnov 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Smyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095062
Shypilov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 188 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back28% 61 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 109
Smyrnov1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov2wins
AwaySmyrnov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov0%0 of 3
AwaySmyrnov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Shypilov5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Shypilov2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Shypilov4Smyrnov4n = 8split evenly
S5Shypilov1Smyrnov3n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovSmyrnovShypilov − SmyrnovBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.4−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 775 vs 393 / 80145.8%49.1%355 / 775 vs 393 / 801Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovShypilov 2.00/Smyrnov 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 23:30A. Shypilov—10970M. Smyrnov—1211113
LAug 25 · 23:45A. Shypilov—11541182M. Smyrnov—811119113
LAug 22 · 01:30A. Shypilov—1110116102M. Smyrnov—812911123
WAug 18 · 23:15A. Shypilov—101111113M. Smyrnov—127791
LAug 13 · 23:45A. Shypilov—87130M. Smyrnov—1111153
LAug 13 · 01:15A. Shypilov—51181182M. Smyrnov—118116113
LAug 12 · 01:15A. Shypilov—6126121M. Smyrnov—111011143
WAug 9 · 08:35A. Shypilov—1011918113M. Smyrnov—122111682
LAug 8 · 19:05A. Shypilov—8125101M. Smyrnov—111011123
LAug 6 · 23:45A. Shypilov—1149101M. Smyrnov—61111123
A. Shypilov10
WSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153WSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Sep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00O. Napirko1.73—Sep 9 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91V. Vlasenko1.80—Sep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.83O. Mitla1.83—Sep 9 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.20O. Hura1.61—Sep 9 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10S. Kalenyk1.67—Sep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00M. Smyrnov1.73—Sep 10 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.91V. Vlasenko1.80—
M. Smyrnov
Sep 8 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.00O. Napirko1.73—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.80O. Mitla1.91—Sep 9 · 03:15M. Smyrnov1.53S. Kalenyk2.38—Sep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.53S. Kalenyk2.38—Sep 9 · 22:45M. Smyrnov1.53V. Vlasenko2.38—Sep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.91O. Hura1.80—Sep 10 · 24:45M. Smyrnov1.73A. Shypilov2.00—Sep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.83O. Mitla1.83—
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