TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061453
Played Sep 2Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911114115911118
Anton Shypilov
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Anton Shypilov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 56–46 Anton Shypilov Anton Shypilov has won 46 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-46 in 102
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 10 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1596 vs Shypilov 1515
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 100% vs Shypilov 40%
Smyrnov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 70% vs Shypilov 50%
Smyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +5 · Shypilov +1
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.73 / Shypilov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Smyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061453
Smyrnov1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 123 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it74% 90 of 122
Shypilov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog48% won 199 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back30% 66 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back14% 16 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov8wins
AwayShypilov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov71.4%5 of 7
AwayShypilov0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov7Shypilov3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Shypilov5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov8Shypilov2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Smyrnov4Shypilov4n = 8split evenly
S5Smyrnov3Shypilov1n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovShypilovSmyrnov − ShypilovBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.439.1+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovShypilovBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 782 vs 354 / 77149.1%45.9%384 / 782 vs 354 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.73/Shypilov 2.00
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 23:30M. Smyrnov—1211113A. Shypilov—10970
WAug 25 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—811119113A. Shypilov—11541182
WAug 22 · 01:30M. Smyrnov—812911123A. Shypilov—1110116102
LAug 18 · 23:15M. Smyrnov—127791A. Shypilov—101111113
WAug 13 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—1111153A. Shypilov—87130
WAug 13 · 01:15M. Smyrnov—118116113A. Shypilov—51181182
WAug 12 · 01:15M. Smyrnov—111011143A. Shypilov—6126121
LAug 9 · 08:35M. Smyrnov—122111682A. Shypilov—1011918113
WAug 8 · 19:05M. Smyrnov—111011123A. Shypilov—8125101
WAug 6 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—61111123A. Shypilov—1149101
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112
A. Shypilov10
LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890WSep 1 · 21:15A. Shypilov2.7541111113R. Lazebnyi1.40118751LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
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