TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055903
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111188111171012
Anton Shypilov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnton Shypilov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Anton Shypilov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Anton Shypilov at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 59–45 Anton Shypilov Anton Shypilov has won 45 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitla
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-45 in 104
Mitla
Wrong
gap of 14 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1476 vs Shypilov 1527
Shypilov
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 100% vs Shypilov 40%
Mitla
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 50% vs Shypilov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +5 · Shypilov -2
Mitla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitla) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 1.80 / Shypilov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mitla)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055903
Mitla1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 62 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Shypilov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 197 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back30% 65 of 220
Down 0–2, comes back14% 16 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla6wins
AwayShypilov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla100%6 of 6
AwayShypilov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla6Shypilov4n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S2Mitla4Shypilov6n = 10Shypilov took 6 of 10
S3Mitla5Shypilov5n = 10split evenly
S4Mitla5Shypilov3n = 8Mitla took 5 of 8
S5Mitla2Shypilov1n = 3Mitla took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaShypilovM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.240.5−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaShypilovBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 738 vs 352 / 76743.6%45.9%322 / 738 vs 352 / 767Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitlaMitla 1.80/Shypilov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mitla · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 19:05O. Mitla—271151A. Shypilov—11119113
WAug 28 · 21:00O. Mitla—11132113A. Shypilov—8111191
WAug 26 · 23:45O. Mitla—111186113A. Shypilov—59111172
WAug 22 · 16:05O. Mitla—118614113A. Shypilov—811111282
LAug 19 · 20:45O. Mitla—91181282A. Shypilov—1171110113
WAug 14 · 02:45O. Mitla—11911133A. Shypilov—8112111
WAug 12 · 21:15O. Mitla—11911153A. Shypilov—7119131
LAug 11 · 21:15O. Mitla—881161A. Shypilov—11118113
LAug 8 · 12:35O. Mitla—5950A. Shypilov—1111113
WAug 4 · 22:45O. Mitla—1121113A. Shypilov—81980
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123
A. Shypilov10
LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890WSep 1 · 21:15A. Shypilov2.7541111113R. Lazebnyi1.40118751LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
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