TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055496
Played Sep 1Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411118117115––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 62.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 1–3 Ruslan Lazebnyi Anton Shypilov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Lazebnyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1540 vs Lazebnyi 1554
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 80% vs Lazebnyi 60%
Shypilov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Shypilov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Lazebnyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.75 / Lazebnyi 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055496
Shypilov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 197 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back30% 65 of 220
Down 0–2, comes back14% 16 of 113
Lazebnyi1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 32 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeShypilov1wins
AwayLazebnyi3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLazebnyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov0Lazebnyi4n = 4Lazebnyi took 4 of 4
S2Shypilov0Lazebnyi4n = 4Lazebnyi took 4 of 4
S3Shypilov2Lazebnyi2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricShypilovLazebnyiS − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match29.536.2−6.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 764 vs 44 / 8545.9%51.8%351 / 764 vs 44 / 85Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiShypilov 2.75/Lazebnyi 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov—5690R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 26 · 02:45A. Shypilov—921111113R. Lazebnyi—11116572
LAug 19 · 03:15A. Shypilov—65100R. Lazebnyi—1111123
LAug 6 · 21:15A. Shypilov—881161R. Lazebnyi—11115113
A. Shypilov10
LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113WSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
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