TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061321
Played Sep 3Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116411118811411
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 85 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 39–43 Serhii Kalenyk Anton Shypilov has won 39 of their 82 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-43 in 82
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1495 vs Kalenyk 1481
Shypilov
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Kalenyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Kalenyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Kalenyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Kalenyk 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalenyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13061321
Shypilov2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 199 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back30% 66 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back14% 16 of 116
Kalenyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 117 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it71% 88 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov80%4 of 5
AwayKalenyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shypilov4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Shypilov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Shypilov4Kalenyk4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKalenykS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.739.5−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 773 vs 332 / 70445.8%47.2%354 / 773 vs 332 / 704Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykShypilov 2.10/Kalenyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 01:45A. Shypilov—6111191S. Kalenyk—11813113
WAug 18 · 22:15A. Shypilov—111211113S. Kalenyk—914781
LAug 16 · 05:05A. Shypilov—3660S. Kalenyk—1111113
LAug 15 · 12:05A. Shypilov—51111692S. Kalenyk—115711113
LAug 13 · 21:15A. Shypilov—4590S. Kalenyk—1111113
LAug 12 · 23:15A. Shypilov—1210791S. Kalenyk—101211113
WAug 11 · 23:15A. Shypilov—14811113S. Kalenyk—1211991
WAug 5 · 24:15A. Shypilov—121546113S. Kalenyk—1013111182
WAug 3 · 23:45A. Shypilov—11611113S. Kalenyk—911671
WJul 31 · 02:45A. Shypilov—81111113S. Kalenyk—119481
A. Shypilov10
LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov2.10981161M. Smyrnov1.6711118113LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890WSep 1 · 21:15A. Shypilov2.7541111113R. Lazebnyi1.40118751LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123WSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113
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