TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055584
Played Sep 1Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811118611––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 46–56 Mykyta Smyrnov Anton Shypilov has won 46 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-56 in 102
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 10 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1539 vs Smyrnov 1550
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 60% vs Smyrnov 40%
Shypilov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 60% vs Smyrnov 40%
Shypilov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Smyrnov 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Smyrnov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055584
Shypilov2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 197 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back30% 65 of 220
Down 0–2, comes back14% 16 of 113
Smyrnov1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 121 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it73% 88 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov2wins
AwaySmyrnov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov0%0 of 3
AwaySmyrnov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Shypilov5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Shypilov2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Shypilov4Smyrnov4n = 8split evenly
S5Shypilov1Smyrnov3n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovSmyrnovShypilov − SmyrnovBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.4−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 766 vs 379 / 77746%48.8%352 / 766 vs 379 / 777Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovShypilov 2.10/Smyrnov 1.67
Hit
What we said
56.2%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 23:30A. Shypilov—10970M. Smyrnov—1211113
LAug 25 · 23:45A. Shypilov—11541182M. Smyrnov—811119113
LAug 22 · 01:30A. Shypilov—1110116102M. Smyrnov—812911123
WAug 18 · 23:15A. Shypilov—101111113M. Smyrnov—127791
LAug 13 · 23:45A. Shypilov—87130M. Smyrnov—1111153
LAug 13 · 01:15A. Shypilov—51181182M. Smyrnov—118116113
LAug 12 · 01:15A. Shypilov—6126121M. Smyrnov—111011143
WAug 9 · 08:35A. Shypilov—1011918113M. Smyrnov—122111682
LAug 8 · 19:05A. Shypilov—8125101M. Smyrnov—111011123
LAug 6 · 23:45A. Shypilov—1149101M. Smyrnov—61111123
A. Shypilov10
LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123LSep 1 · 22:45O. Hura1.731311113A. Shypilov2.0011890WSep 1 · 21:15A. Shypilov2.7541111113R. Lazebnyi1.40118751LSep 1 · 24:15A. Shypilov2.505690R. Lazebnyi1.501111113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182
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