TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095140
Played Sep 8Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117611311––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 65 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 62.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 25–58 Mykyta Smyrnov Valerii Vlasenko has won 25 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-58 in 83
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 33 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1558 vs Smyrnov 1552
Vlasenko
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 80% vs Smyrnov 20%
Vlasenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 60% vs Smyrnov 20%
Vlasenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.38 / Smyrnov 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Smyrnov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13095140
Vlasenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Smyrnov1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko2wins
AwaySmyrnov8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySmyrnov77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko1Smyrnov9n = 10Smyrnov took 9 of 10
S2Vlasenko2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S3Vlasenko4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Smyrnov2n = 7Vlasenko took 5 of 7
S5Vlasenko2Smyrnov3n = 5Smyrnov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovV − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.342.4−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 931 vs 392 / 80044.2%49%411 / 931 vs 392 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovVlasenko 2.38/Smyrnov 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 23:00V. Vlasenko—914712113M. Smyrnov—1112111092
LSep 2 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—731171M. Smyrnov—11118113
LAug 30 · 05:05V. Vlasenko—5680M. Smyrnov—1111113
LAug 28 · 21:30V. Vlasenko—571191M. Smyrnov—11112113
LAug 25 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—5950M. Smyrnov—1111113
LAug 25 · 24:15V. Vlasenko—77121162M. Smyrnov—1111108113
LAug 21 · 20:00V. Vlasenko—97100M. Smyrnov—1111123
LAug 17 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—1110101352M. Smyrnov—7121211113
WAug 13 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—811811113M. Smyrnov—11911592
LAug 12 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—77111192M. Smyrnov—111158113
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123
Upcoming Matches
V. Vlasenko
M. Smyrnov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.