TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095135
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6118111171161315
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:49 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 99 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 33–30 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:49What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vlasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-30 in 63
Vlasenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1516 vs Kalenyk 1526
Kalenyk
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 20% vs Kalenyk 60%
Kalenyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -4 · Kalenyk -1
Vlasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.73 / Kalenyk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vlasenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13095135
Vlasenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite45% won 42 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it64% 27 of 42
Kalenyk2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 75 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko9wins
AwayKalenyk1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayKalenyk0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Kalenyk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko7Kalenyk3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko6Kalenyk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko6Kalenyk3n = 9Vlasenko took 6 of 9
S5Vlasenko4Kalenyk1n = 5Vlasenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoKalenykV − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.240.4+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 934 vs 341 / 72344%47.2%411 / 934 vs 341 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoVlasenko 1.73/Kalenyk 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:05V. Vlasenko—11411123S. Kalenyk—5115101
WSep 4 · 22:00V. Vlasenko—511612113S. Kalenyk—117111052
WSep 3 · 24:15V. Vlasenko—11118113S. Kalenyk—861171
LAug 16 · 08:05V. Vlasenko—1911117102S. Kalenyk—1761311123
WAug 15 · 18:05V. Vlasenko—14119103S. Kalenyk—1281181
WAug 14 · 01:15V. Vlasenko—211118113S. Kalenyk—11791172
WAug 12 · 21:45V. Vlasenko—581111163S. Kalenyk—111128142
WAug 11 · 21:45V. Vlasenko—1112113S. Kalenyk—41090
WAug 7 · 21:30V. Vlasenko—11111110113S. Kalenyk—13381282
WAug 5 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—13713113S. Kalenyk—11111181
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 9 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.917911151V. Vlasenko1.8011112173LSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113
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