TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095398
Played Sep 8Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511117611––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 56.2%
70 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 74–101 Oleh Napirko Valerii Vlasenko has won 74 of their 175 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-101 in 175
Napirko
Correct
gap of 27 in 175, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1534 vs Napirko 1557
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Napirko 40%
Vlasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 60% vs Napirko 30%
Vlasenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -2 · Napirko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.10 / Napirko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Napirko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095398
Vlasenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Napirko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 68 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko6wins
AwayNapirko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko100%5 of 5
AwayNapirko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko4Napirko6n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko8Napirko2n = 10Vlasenko took 8 of 10
S4Vlasenko5Napirko3n = 8Vlasenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoV − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.4−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 933 vs 435 / 86744.1%50.2%411 / 933 vs 435 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoVlasenko 2.10/Napirko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—851161O. Napirko—11117113
WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—12119113O. Napirko—1061181
WAug 27 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—6121115113O. Napirko—111461382
WAug 25 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—121013113O. Napirko—10121191
WAug 18 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—11811113O. Napirko—811791
LAug 14 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—51141152O. Napirko—118119113
WAug 9 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—1112133O. Napirko—710110
LAug 4 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—971191O. Napirko—11116113
LAug 2 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—541171O. Napirko—11118113
WJul 31 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—1111113O. Napirko—4990
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123
O. Napirko10
WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771
Upcoming Matches
V. Vlasenko
Sep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73S. Kalenyk2.00—Sep 9 · 02:15V. Vlasenko1.80A. Shypilov1.91—Sep 9 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.10O. Hura1.67—Sep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38M. Smyrnov1.53—Sep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.91O. Mitla1.80—Sep 10 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73S. Kalenyk2.00—Sep 10 · 02:15V. Vlasenko1.80A. Shypilov1.91—
O. Napirko
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