TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095043
Played Sep 8Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911611119113116
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 56.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 39–43 Serhii Kalenyk Anton Shypilov has won 39 of their 82 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kalenyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-43 in 82
Kalenyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1471 vs Kalenyk 1540
Kalenyk
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 20% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 30% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -1 · Kalenyk +3
Kalenyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Kalenyk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kalenyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13095043
Shypilov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 188 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back28% 61 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 109
Kalenyk1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 113 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it72% 86 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov80%4 of 5
AwayKalenyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shypilov4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Shypilov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Shypilov4Kalenyk4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKalenykS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.739.5−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 776 vs 341 / 72245.8%47.2%355 / 776 vs 341 / 722Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykShypilov 2.10/Kalenyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 01:45A. Shypilov—6111191S. Kalenyk—11813113
WAug 18 · 22:15A. Shypilov—111211113S. Kalenyk—914781
LAug 16 · 05:05A. Shypilov—3660S. Kalenyk—1111113
LAug 15 · 12:05A. Shypilov—51111692S. Kalenyk—115711113
LAug 13 · 21:15A. Shypilov—4590S. Kalenyk—1111113
LAug 12 · 23:15A. Shypilov—1210791S. Kalenyk—101211113
WAug 11 · 23:15A. Shypilov—14811113S. Kalenyk—1211991
WAug 5 · 24:15A. Shypilov—121546113S. Kalenyk—1013111182
WAug 3 · 23:45A. Shypilov—11611113S. Kalenyk—911671
WJul 31 · 02:45A. Shypilov—81111113S. Kalenyk—119481
A. Shypilov10
LSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113LSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113WSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113
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