TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095053
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112117114––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 46 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 59.7%
46 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 46–29 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 29 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-29 in 75
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 17 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1528 vs Mitla 1453
Kalenyk
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 80% vs Mitla 40%
Kalenyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 70% vs Mitla 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk +2 · Mitla -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 1.57 / Mitla 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kalenyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13095053
Kalenyk1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 113 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it72% 86 of 119
Mitla2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 167 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 61 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk3wins
AwayMitla7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk50%3 of 6
AwayMitla100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk6Mitla4n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S2Kalenyk6Mitla4n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Kalenyk5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Kalenyk1Mitla6n = 7Mitla took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykMitlaK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.1+1.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 721 vs 329 / 75647.2%43.5%340 / 721 vs 329 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykKalenyk 1.57/Mitla 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 10:05S. Kalenyk—117791O. Mitla—41111113
LSep 5 · 24:00S. Kalenyk—87111182O. Mitla—111192113
WSep 2 · 22:15S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—6580
LSep 1 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—118981O. Mitla—81111113
LAug 20 · 24:15S. Kalenyk—13117392O. Mitla—1171111113
LAug 13 · 22:15S. Kalenyk—911791O. Mitla—11711113
WAug 13 · 24:45S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—1590
LAug 12 · 24:45S. Kalenyk—8912111O. Mitla—111110133
WAug 7 · 23:30S. Kalenyk—1111113O. Mitla—9860
LAug 5 · 23:45S. Kalenyk—101110141O. Mitla—12612163
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123
O. Mitla10
LSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152
Upcoming Matches
S. Kalenyk
O. Mitla
Sep 9 · 24:15O. Mitla1.80V. Vlasenko1.91—Sep 9 · 01:45O. Mitla1.91M. Smyrnov1.80—Sep 9 · 02:45O. Mitla3.25O. Napirko1.33—Sep 9 · 20:15O. Mitla1.83A. Shypilov1.83—Sep 9 · 22:15O. Mitla2.25S. Kalenyk1.57—Sep 10 · 24:15O. Mitla1.80V. Vlasenko1.91—Sep 10 · 01:45O. Mitla2.00O. Hura1.73—Sep 10 · 02:45O. Mitla1.83M. Smyrnov1.83—
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