TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095105
Played Sep 9Finished
Anton Shypilov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7114111210511––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:49 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 33–31 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 31 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-31 in 64
Shypilov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1483 vs Napirko 1572
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Napirko 80%
Napirko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Napirko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +1 · Napirko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.00 / Napirko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Napirko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095105
Shypilov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 188 of 400
Down 0–1, comes back28% 61 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 109
Napirko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 68 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov75%3 of 4
AwayNapirko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov4Napirko6n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov3Napirko7n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S3Shypilov7Napirko3n = 10Shypilov took 7 of 10
S4Shypilov3Napirko4n = 7Napirko took 4 of 7
S5Shypilov2Napirko1n = 3Shypilov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovNapirkoS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.9−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 777 vs 436 / 86845.8%50.2%356 / 777 vs 436 / 868Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoShypilov 2.00/Napirko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 18:35A. Shypilov—119113113O. Napirko—71191172
LAug 19 · 23:45A. Shypilov—9840O. Napirko—1111113
WAug 14 · 24:45A. Shypilov—51112123O. Napirko—11910101
WAug 9 · 09:35A. Shypilov—15101110113O. Napirko—131261252
LAug 5 · 02:15A. Shypilov—861171O. Napirko—11117113
WAug 3 · 22:45A. Shypilov—1112113O. Napirko—61070
LJul 30 · 22:45A. Shypilov—114781O. Napirko—81111113
LJul 29 · 24:45A. Shypilov—96111162O. Napirko—111158113
WJul 19 · 09:05A. Shypilov—111111113O. Napirko—136791
LJul 18 · 14:05A. Shypilov—87140O. Napirko—1111163
A. Shypilov10
WSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362LSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151LSep 3 · 01:45A. Shypilov2.1011411842S. Kalenyk1.67611811113LSep 2 · 23:45M. Smyrnov1.73911119113A. Shypilov2.0011451182WSep 2 · 21:45O. Hura1.6711681182A. Shypilov2.10611116113LSep 2 · 20:45V. Vlasenko1.611111113A. Shypilov2.209990LSep 2 · 02:45A. Shypilov2.006870S. Kalenyk1.731111113WSep 2 · 24:45O. Mitla1.80711811102A. Shypilov1.91118117123
O. Napirko10
WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980
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