TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13096147
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8114111012––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Mitla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Oleksii Mitla at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 37–36 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:09What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-36 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1534 vs Mitla 1442
Vlasenko
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 40% vs Mitla 20%
Vlasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Mitla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -3 · Mitla -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitla)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.91 / Mitla 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mitla)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13096147
Vlasenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Mitla1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko5wins
AwayMitla5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko80%4 of 5
AwayMitla80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko6Mitla4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Vlasenko3Mitla5n = 8Mitla took 5 of 8
S5Vlasenko3Mitla2n = 5Vlasenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoMitlaV − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.442.5+0.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 933 vs 329 / 75744.1%43.5%411 / 933 vs 329 / 757Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitlaVlasenko 1.91/Mitla 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mitla · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 01:15V. Vlasenko—1341112123O. Mitla—11111310102
WAug 30 · 08:35V. Vlasenko—1112811113O. Mitla—810111352
WAug 28 · 23:00V. Vlasenko—1111153O. Mitla—48130
LAug 26 · 20:45V. Vlasenko—1111912102O. Mitla—9131110123
LAug 24 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—8137111O. Mitla—111111133
LAug 17 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—101111982O. Mitla—128911113
LAug 14 · 24:15V. Vlasenko—6101171O. Mitla—11124113
WAug 12 · 23:45V. Vlasenko—741111113O. Mitla—11117582
WAug 11 · 23:45V. Vlasenko—1111113O. Mitla—6890
LAug 8 · 24:30V. Vlasenko—81111101O. Mitla—11713123
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153
O. Mitla10
LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740LSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792
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