TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095008
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113611118118––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 44–54 Oleksii Mitla Mykyta Smyrnov has won 44 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-54 in 98
Mitla
Wrong
gap of 10 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1561 vs Mitla 1460
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Mitla 40%
Smyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 30% vs Mitla 50%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.80 / Mitla 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smyrnov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13095008
Smyrnov1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Mitla1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 167 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 61 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayMitla6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov50%4 of 8
AwayMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov8Mitla2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyrnov5Mitla3n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Smyrnov1Mitla6n = 7Mitla took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovMitlaS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.9+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 803 vs 330 / 75849.1%43.5%394 / 803 vs 330 / 758Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.80/Mitla 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 21:15M. Smyrnov—11119113O. Mitla—951191
LSep 1 · 21:45M. Smyrnov—11312942O. Mitla—5111011113
LAug 30 · 10:05M. Smyrnov—911101182O. Mitla—115129113
WAug 29 · 14:05M. Smyrnov—1111113O. Mitla—2660
LAug 29 · 03:00M. Smyrnov—11101011112O. Mitla—512127133
WAug 25 · 02:45M. Smyrnov—111357143O. Mitla—5111111122
LAug 23 · 06:35M. Smyrnov—11811972O. Mitla—511511113
LAug 17 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—11761152O. Mitla—711118113
LAug 14 · 01:45M. Smyrnov—107141252O. Mitla—12111210113
WAug 12 · 22:45M. Smyrnov—1311113O. Mitla—11990
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153
O. Mitla10
WSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740LSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792
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