TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095029
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13115118111311115
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 99 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 62.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 29–56 Mykyta Smyrnov Serhii Kalenyk has won 29 of their 85 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-56 in 85
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 27 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1537 vs Smyrnov 1569
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 80% vs Smyrnov 60%
Kalenyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 80% vs Smyrnov 40%
Kalenyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk +1 · Smyrnov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 2.38 / Smyrnov 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Smyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095029
Kalenyk2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 75 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Smyrnov1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk5wins
AwaySmyrnov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk80%4 of 5
AwaySmyrnov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kalenyk7Smyrnov3n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S3Kalenyk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kalenyk1Smyrnov3n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykSmyrnovK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.931.8+3.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 724 vs 395 / 80447.2%49.1%342 / 724 vs 395 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovKalenyk 2.38/Smyrnov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk—1112113M. Smyrnov—51080
LSep 4 · 20:00S. Kalenyk—116971M. Smyrnov—91111113
LSep 3 · 02:45S. Kalenyk—811111082M. Smyrnov—113812113
LSep 2 · 01:45S. Kalenyk—8660M. Smyrnov—1111113
WAug 18 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—1112113M. Smyrnov—51060
LAug 14 · 03:15S. Kalenyk—911881M. Smyrnov—11711113
WAug 13 · 02:15S. Kalenyk—1113113M. Smyrnov—61150
WAug 12 · 02:15S. Kalenyk—1111113M. Smyrnov—3430
LAug 5 · 21:15S. Kalenyk—6660M. Smyrnov—1111113
WAug 4 · 03:15S. Kalenyk—9111512113M. Smyrnov—113171082
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080
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