TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101213
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131311114119––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 62.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 56–30 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 30 of their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-30 in 86
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 26 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1557 vs Kalenyk 1549
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 40% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Kalenyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.57 / Kalenyk 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Smyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13101213
Smyrnov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 129 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it89% 57 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it75% 94 of 126
Kalenyk2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 78 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov100%4 of 4
AwayKalenyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyrnov3Kalenyk1n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovKalenykS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.834.1−2.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 805 vs 343 / 72549.1%47.3%395 / 805 vs 343 / 725Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.57/Kalenyk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 03:15M. Smyrnov—1111111152S. Kalenyk—135813113
LSep 5 · 19:05M. Smyrnov—51080S. Kalenyk—1112113
WSep 4 · 20:00M. Smyrnov—91111113S. Kalenyk—116971
WSep 3 · 02:45M. Smyrnov—113812113S. Kalenyk—811111082
WSep 2 · 01:45M. Smyrnov—1111113S. Kalenyk—8660
LAug 18 · 20:15M. Smyrnov—51060S. Kalenyk—1112113
WAug 14 · 03:15M. Smyrnov—11711113S. Kalenyk—911881
LAug 13 · 02:15M. Smyrnov—61150S. Kalenyk—1113113
LAug 12 · 02:15M. Smyrnov—3430S. Kalenyk—1111113
WAug 5 · 21:15M. Smyrnov—1111113S. Kalenyk—6660
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:15V. Vlasenko1.73681111132S. Kalenyk2.00111176153LSep 8 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10961111113S. Kalenyk1.6711119362WSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740WSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113
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