TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101222
Played Sep 10Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151151614––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 62 set 3, 16-14 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 45–55 Oleksii Mitla Mykyta Smyrnov has won 45 of their 100 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-55 in 100
Mitla
Wrong
gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1578 vs Mitla 1475
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Mitla 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 60% vs Mitla 40%
Smyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +2 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.73 / Mitla 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Smyrnov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13101222
Smyrnov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 129 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it89% 57 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it75% 94 of 126
Mitla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 167 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back26% 61 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayMitla6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov50%4 of 8
AwayMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov8Mitla2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov4Mitla6n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov5Mitla4n = 9Smyrnov took 5 of 9
S5Smyrnov1Mitla5n = 6Mitla took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovMitlaS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.940.4+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 809 vs 333 / 76449.2%43.6%398 / 809 vs 333 / 764Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.73/Mitla 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov—11611113O. Mitla—311881
LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov—9118101O. Mitla—11611123
WSep 2 · 21:15M. Smyrnov—11119113O. Mitla—951191
LSep 1 · 21:45M. Smyrnov—11312942O. Mitla—5111011113
LAug 30 · 10:05M. Smyrnov—911101182O. Mitla—115129113
WAug 29 · 14:05M. Smyrnov—1111113O. Mitla—2660
LAug 29 · 03:00M. Smyrnov—11101011112O. Mitla—512127133
WAug 25 · 02:45M. Smyrnov—111357143O. Mitla—5111111122
LAug 23 · 06:35M. Smyrnov—11811972O. Mitla—511511113
LAug 17 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—11761152O. Mitla—711118113
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113WSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.38511631M. Smyrnov1.5311711113LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552
O. Mitla10
WSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura1.7399111192O. Mitla2.00111195113LSep 10 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.801211713113O. Mitla1.91109111582WSep 9 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.53116981O. Mitla2.3871111113WSep 9 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.9191410101O. Mitla1.80111212123LSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko1.331111113O. Mitla3.257940LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881WSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740LSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141
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