TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095025
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119114––––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 72.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 44–14 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-14 in 58
Napirko
Correct
gap of 30 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1590 vs Mitla 1442
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 80% vs Mitla 20%
Napirko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 50% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +3 · Mitla -1
Napirko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Napirko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.33 / Mitla 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Napirko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095025
Napirko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 68 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Mitla3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 167 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back27% 61 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko9wins
AwayMitla1wins
Napirko leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%9 of 9
AwayMitlan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko9Mitla1n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S2Napirko9Mitla1n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S3Napirko8Mitla2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S4Napirko2Mitla1n = 3Napirko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoMitlaN − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.727.9+8.8per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 870 vs 330 / 76050.3%43.4%438 / 870 vs 330 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.33/Mitla 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—7940
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko—11119113O. Mitla—571141
LAug 26 · 21:45O. Napirko—8711131O. Mitla—11118153
WAug 25 · 24:45O. Napirko—1112123O. Mitla—610100
WAug 22 · 14:35O. Napirko—1115143O. Mitla—913120
WAug 19 · 22:45O. Napirko—1211113O. Mitla—10480
WAug 18 · 24:45O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—6680
WAug 13 · 20:15O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—6880
WAug 5 · 24:45O. Napirko—1211133O. Mitla—109110
WAug 4 · 24:15O. Napirko—11119113O. Mitla—941191
O. Napirko10
WSep 9 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.00741251O. Napirko1.73111110113WSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.10851161O. Napirko1.6711117113LSep 8 · 21:15O. Napirko1.831110571S. Kalenyk1.8361211113WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113
O. Mitla10
LSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881WSep 9 · 24:15V. Vlasenko1.9184100O. Mitla1.801111123LSep 8 · 22:15S. Kalenyk1.571111113O. Mitla2.252740LSep 8 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.8311128113O. Mitla1.834101121LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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