TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111183
Played Sep 11Finished
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9117111161141113
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 94 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 59.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 4–3 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1579 vs Smyrnov 1589
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Smyrnov 80%
Smyrnov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Smyrnov 70%
Smyrnov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Smyrnov +3
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.57 / Smyrnov 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111183
Lazebnyi1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Smyrnov2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLazebnyi4wins
AwaySmyrnov3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyi66.7%4 of 6
AwaySmyrnovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi6Smyrnov1n = 7Lazebnyi took 6 of 7
S2Lazebnyi5Smyrnov2n = 7Lazebnyi took 5 of 7
S3Lazebnyi5Smyrnov2n = 7Lazebnyi took 5 of 7
S4Lazebnyi2Smyrnov2n = 4split evenly
S5Lazebnyi0Smyrnov3n = 3Smyrnov took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricLazebnyiSmyrnovL − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match41.634.0+7.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 109 vs 399 / 81049.5%49.3%54 / 109 vs 399 / 810Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.57/Smyrnov 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 2 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi—119101182M. Smyrnov—911126113
LAug 26 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi—119117152M. Smyrnov—611611173
WAug 25 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi—1111113M. Smyrnov—7780
WAug 18 · 21:45R. Lazebnyi—1111173M. Smyrnov—83150
WAug 18 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi—1111113M. Smyrnov—5190
LAug 7 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi—81111672M. Smyrnov—114811113
WAug 5 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi—11118113M. Smyrnov—851161
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080WSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660WSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.003370M. Smyrnov1.731111113
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