TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111330
Played Sep 11Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115114114––
Yaroslav Kravets
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Kravets below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 70 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 70.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 5–0 Yaroslav Kravets Yaroslav Kravets has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1637 vs Kravets 1611
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kravets 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kravets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Kravets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.40 / Kravets 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111330
Kovalchuk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 115 of 160
Kravets2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 70 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKravets0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4
AwayKravetsn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Kravets1n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
S2Kovalchuk3Kravets2n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
S3Kovalchuk5Kravets0n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
S4Kovalchuk2Kravets1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKovalchukKravetsKovalchuk − KravetsBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.828.8+10.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKravetsBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 723 vs 240 / 48251.2%49.8%370 / 723 vs 240 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.40/Kravets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 14 · 17:05N. Kovalchuk—1111113Y. Kravets—9750
WAug 8 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk—711114113Y. Kravets—11471182
WJun 13 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk—1211133Y. Kravets—104110
WMay 16 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—11911113Y. Kravets—911391
WMar 13 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk—11611113Y. Kravets—711161
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380LSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113WSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113WSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113
Y. Kravets10
WSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172LSep 11 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.53125613113Y. Kravets2.381011111122LSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581WSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123WSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170LSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110
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