TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105700
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116911114911611
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 40–41 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Kozachuk has won 40 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:24What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-41 in 81
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1753 vs Shcherbak 1760
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +3 · Shcherbak -1
Kozachuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.80 / Shcherbak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13105700
Kozachuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 131 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 123
Shcherbak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 126 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk80%4 of 5
AwayShcherbak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kozachuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S3Kozachuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk2Shcherbak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukShcherbakK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.131.6+1.5per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1098 vs 326 / 62849.7%51.9%546 / 1098 vs 326 / 628Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.80/Shcherbak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk—8570D. Shcherbak—1111113
WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk—61111113D. Shcherbak—117891
WSep 3 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—71111113D. Shcherbak—115761
WSep 1 · 09:58I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—8350
LSep 1 · 07:25I. Kozachuk—4970D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 31 · 12:25I. Kozachuk—168114113D. Shcherbak—141181182
WAug 25 · 04:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9940
WAug 24 · 17:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9630
LAug 18 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—6390D. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 17 · 16:05I. Kozachuk—11118782D. Shcherbak—661111113
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790WSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560WSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161WSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113LSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
Nothing scheduled
D. Shcherbak
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