TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116928
Played Sep 12Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141513115––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 74 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 10–8 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1664 vs Lazebnyi 1625
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 80%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Lazebnyi +3
Lazebnyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.80 / Lazebnyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116928
Kovalchuk1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 164 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Lazebnyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 21 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayLazebnyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Lazebnyi3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk3Lazebnyi7n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Lazebnyi4n = 7Lazebnyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.7+1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 730 vs 60 / 11851.4%50.9%375 / 730 vs 60 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.80/Lazebnyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk—8680R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WSep 5 · 11:05N. Kovalchuk—111159133R. Lazebnyi—431111112
LSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk—1110751R. Lazebnyi—91211113
LAug 31 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—8290R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 29 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—11119113R. Lazebnyi—671191
WAug 28 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk—11613123R. Lazebnyi—41111101
WAug 25 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—1111123R. Lazebnyi—57100
WAug 25 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—11126113R. Lazebnyi—3101171
WAug 22 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk—11111110113R. Lazebnyi—86131282
LAug 21 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—8101171R. Lazebnyi—11125113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 12 · 09:35Y. Kravets3.006580N. Kovalchuk1.361111113LSep 12 · 07:35V. Plishylo2.00141179113N. Kovalchuk1.73128111182WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830WSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 12 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi1.8091111113R. Haiseniuk1.91117751WSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113LSep 12 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.91101111123R. Lazebnyi1.801272101WSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113WSep 11 · 14:35R. Lazebnyi2.001111113R. Haiseniuk1.739670LSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133LSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080
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