TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116992
Played Sep 12Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214611911––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 63 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 12–11 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Romaniak beat Kovalchuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Romaniak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1724 vs Kovalchuk 1642
Romaniak
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 80% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +3 · Kovalchuk -1
Romaniak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 1.80 / Kovalchuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Romaniak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116992
Romaniak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 60 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Kovalchuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Romaniak7Kovalchuk3n = 10Romaniak took 7 of 10
S3Romaniak6Kovalchuk4n = 10Romaniak took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak6Kovalchuk0n = 6Romaniak took 6 of 6
S5Romaniak2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakKovalchukR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.0+0.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 526 vs 372 / 72645.6%51.2%240 / 526 vs 372 / 726Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakRomaniak 1.80/Kovalchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:05I. Romaniak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—8970
WSep 10 · 23:30I. Romaniak—155311123N. Kovalchuk—1311119102
LSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak—811121382N. Kovalchuk—1171411113
WAug 21 · 13:35I. Romaniak—9111013123N. Kovalchuk—1181211102
WJul 2 · 23:00I. Romaniak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—8860
LJun 14 · 23:00I. Romaniak—135131172N. Kovalchuk—1511119113
WJun 3 · 06:05I. Romaniak—1611113N. Kovalchuk—14690
WJun 2 · 15:05I. Romaniak—81111163N. Kovalchuk—1187141
LJun 1 · 22:00I. Romaniak—6860N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WMay 18 · 23:00I. Romaniak—21112113N. Kovalchuk—1181061
I. Romaniak10
WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk2.2029111162I. Romaniak1.6111119673WSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113WSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113LSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172WSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113LSep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61116961R. Haiseniuk2.2081111113WSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 12 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk1.731111113R. Haiseniuk2.005830LSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660WSep 11 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.40111111113Y. Kravets2.75135441WSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162LSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113LSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380
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