TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111287
Played Sep 11Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511115711811
Ivan Romaniak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 62.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 5–8 Ivan Romaniak Mykyta Smyrnov has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Romaniak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Romaniak
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1576 vs Romaniak 1704
Romaniak
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -2 · Romaniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.91 / Romaniak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Romaniak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111287
Smyrnov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Romaniak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 58 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it85% 45 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayRomaniak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov66.7%2 of 3
AwayRomaniak71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov3Romaniak7n = 10Romaniak took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Romaniak6n = 10Romaniak took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov6Romaniak4n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov2Romaniak3n = 5Romaniak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovRomaniakS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.137.7−3.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 813 vs 238 / 52449.2%45.4%400 / 813 vs 238 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakSmyrnov 1.91/Romaniak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Smyrnov—1711113I. Romaniak—15860
LJun 3 · 08:05M. Smyrnov—7240I. Romaniak—1111113
LJun 2 · 14:05M. Smyrnov—91060I. Romaniak—1112113
LMay 26 · 12:35M. Smyrnov—11131141I. Romaniak—13159113
LMay 11 · 22:00M. Smyrnov—7790I. Romaniak—1111113
WMay 1 · 01:25M. Smyrnov—6111311113I. Romaniak—11815862
LApr 12 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—11911592I. Romaniak—911911113
WMar 16 · 04:15M. Smyrnov—41111143I. Romaniak—1196121
LFeb 10 · 15:05M. Smyrnov—591161I. Romaniak—11116113
WFeb 10 · 04:00M. Smyrnov—1211113I. Romaniak—10590
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881
I. Romaniak10
WSep 11 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk2.2029111162I. Romaniak1.6111119673WSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113LSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172WSep 11 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.838970I. Romaniak1.831111113WSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113LSep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61116961R. Haiseniuk2.2081111113WSep 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk1.831311119102I. Romaniak1.83155311123LSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492LSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100WSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181
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