TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111260
Played Sep 11Finished
Ruslan Haiseniuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119119119––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Haiseniuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Haiseniuk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Haiseniuk at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Haiseniuk 17–18 Mykyta Smyrnov Ruslan Haiseniuk has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:46What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Haiseniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-18 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Haiseniuk 1541 vs Smyrnov 1589
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Haiseniuk 40% vs Smyrnov 80%
Smyrnov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Haiseniuk 30% vs Smyrnov 60%
Smyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Haiseniuk -1 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Haiseniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHaiseniuk 1.73 / Smyrnov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Haiseniuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111260
Haiseniuk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 140 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it83% 98 of 118
Smyrnov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHaiseniuk4wins
AwaySmyrnov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHaiseniuk60%3 of 5
AwaySmyrnov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Haiseniuk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Haiseniuk4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S3Haiseniuk3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Haiseniuk2Smyrnov4n = 6Smyrnov took 4 of 6
S5Haiseniuk2Smyrnov1n = 3Haiseniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHaiseniukSmyrnovH − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.0−2.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHaiseniukSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 742 vs 400 / 81255.5%49.3%412 / 742 vs 400 / 812Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HaiseniukHaiseniuk 1.73/Smyrnov 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Haiseniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Haiseniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 14 · 08:05R. Haiseniuk—81111123M. Smyrnov—1185101
LJun 13 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk—9890M. Smyrnov—1111113
LJun 9 · 23:15R. Haiseniuk—5980M. Smyrnov—1111113
WJun 6 · 17:35R. Haiseniuk—114811113M. Smyrnov—51111962
WMay 16 · 17:05R. Haiseniuk—1111113M. Smyrnov—6770
LMay 16 · 01:30R. Haiseniuk—911681M. Smyrnov—11611113
LMay 9 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk—11650M. Smyrnov—1311113
LMay 2 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk—115111262M. Smyrnov—811614113
LApr 11 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk—128891M. Smyrnov—101111113
WApr 11 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk—1111311113M. Smyrnov—99111392
R. Haiseniuk10
LSep 11 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.839660LSep 11 · 14:35R. Lazebnyi2.001111113R. Haiseniuk1.739670WSep 11 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.53125613113Y. Kravets2.381011111122LSep 11 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk1.831191211113R. Haiseniuk1.8321114642WSep 11 · 01:30I. Romaniak1.61116961R. Haiseniuk2.2081111113LSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790LSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560LSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071LSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 11 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.57611117113M. Smyrnov2.2511661162WSep 11 · 12:35R. Lazebnyi1.57971111112M. Smyrnov2.25111164133WSep 10 · 02:45M. Smyrnov1.731111163O. Mitla2.0055140WSep 10 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.10811811122M. Smyrnov1.67118117143WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.0011113113O. Hura1.73891191LSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.38912311113M. Smyrnov1.53111011972WSep 9 · 21:15M. Smyrnov1.57111311113S. Kalenyk2.251311491LSep 9 · 03:15S. Kalenyk2.38135813113M. Smyrnov1.531111111152WSep 9 · 01:45M. Smyrnov1.8011611113O. Mitla1.91311881LSep 8 · 23:45O. Napirko1.731111113M. Smyrnov2.005660
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